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Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss the warning signs. This book shows why such predictable surprises place us all at risk and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.
- Sales Rank: #914152 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Harvard Business Review Press
- Published on: 2008-03-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.20" h x 1.00" w x 5.50" l, .80 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 336 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
From Booklist
Bazerman and Watkins, faculty at the Harvard Business School, define predictable surprises as "an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all of the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences." They cite as examples the tragedy of 9/11 and Enron's collapse. Insisting theirs is not 20/20 hindsight, they explain how many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders miss or ignore. Characteristics of predictable surprises include when leaders know a problem exists and that problem does not solve itself and gets worse, the human tendency to maintain the status quo, and the reality of a small vocal minority (special interests) that benefit from inaction. Future predictable surprises include government subsidies, global warming, government's ignoring future financial obligations in medical costs and retirement commitments, and the large obligations airlines have in frequent flyer miles. This is an excellent book for library patrons in both the public and private sectors. Mary Whaley
Copyright � American Library Association. All rights reserved
About the Author
Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. Michael D. Watkins is Professor of General Management at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, and co-founder of Genesis Advisers, a leadership development company.
Most helpful customer reviews
10 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
On Target - Bullseye - Should have seen it coming
By George D. Klein, author, Dissensions
Anyone who has worked for some sort of organization, government agency, business, university or whatever, will empathise with "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins. This book focuses on the early and late warning signs, the cover-ups, the denials, and the eventual consequences of failing to take action to avert disaster. I've been in far too many situations where I observed that the peple "in charge" (really??) were blindsided by their own limited vision to the realities of what was happening within their organizations.
There are two "Predictable Surprises" that weren't included. First, Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath in New Orleans. Anyone visiting that city and talking with one's professional compatriates could have seen coming what unfolded before our eyes. The warning signs and studies were out there and ignored. That's why those who had a reasonable level of education left town and paid attention to the evacuation notices.
The other predictable surprise that was missed was the sex abuse scandal in the Roman Catholic Church. I'm Protestant but know a lot of fine Roman Catholic people. I heard things as long ago as fifty years and knew then that this situation was going to explode in the public domain. "Predictable Surprises" provides the principals that explain why this particular surprise was kept under the radar so long.
An outstanding book that should be read by everyone working in the corporate world, a government agency, a university, the military, or a non-profit organization. Your life may depend on knowing what's in this book.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Three Stars
By C. Frescura
wife wanted to check it out and it work fine
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By KingCobra
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